Monsoon 2025 Set for Strong Performance as El Niño Risk Fades, NOAA Brings Early Relief Ahead of IMD Forecast

April 12, 2025 . Weather News India — In a promising development for India’s agricultural and economic outlook, the threat of El Niño weakening the monsoon appears to be over, according to a recent report by the U.S.-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The report, released just a week ahead of the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) official long-range monsoon forecast, brings early relief for farmers, policymakers, and water resource managers across the country.

No El Niño This Summer, Neutral ENSO Likely to Prevail

According to NOAA’s April update, El Niño conditions are unlikely to form during the upcoming summer and monsoon months, increasing the likelihood of a normal or above-normal southwest monsoon. The ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is now expected to remain in a neutral phase through August to October 2025, with over 50% probability.

This comes in alignment with early IMD assessments, which had also ruled out the formation of El Niño during the monsoon season.

Why This Matters: The ENSO-Monsoon Link

The ENSO phenomenon, which includes El Niño (warm phase), La Niña (cool phase), and Neutral conditions, plays a crucial role in shaping India’s monsoon:

• El Niño is historically linked with weakened monsoon rainfall and drought-like conditions in India.

• La Niña, on the other hand, generally supports above-normal rainfall.

• In a neutral ENSO phase, the monsoon can go either way, but several past years have shown normal or surplus rainfall during neutral periods.

With 70% of India’s annual rainfall occurring between June and September, the monsoon is vital for kharif crop sowing, water reservoir recharge, and overall economic stability.

A Boost for Farmers and the Economy

The NOAA forecast has been met with widespread optimism in India’s agricultural and policy circles. A normal monsoon in 2025 could:

• Support timely sowing of crops like rice, pulses, and cotton

• Ease inflationary pressure by stabilizing food prices

• Reduce dependence on irrigation and energy consumption

• Strengthen rural demand and GDP growth

Farmers, especially in rain-fed regions, are now looking forward to IMD’s official forecast next week for further clarity.