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'Will keep escalating consequences': Trump threatens tariffs over Mexico's water shortfalls amid treaty dispute

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US President Donald Trump issued a warning to Mexico on Thursday, threatening trade repercussions unless it increases water supply to Texas under a long-standing treaty.

Through his Truth Social platform, Trump stated, "Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas Farmers" and "last year the only Sugar Mill in Texas closed" due to water shortages.

Trump alleged Mexico's violation of a 1944 agreement where the United States provides Colorado River water in exchange for Rio Grande flows along their shared border.

He further declared that, "We will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty."

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The existing treaty period concludes in October, with Mexico owing the United States over 1.55 billion cubic metres, according to bilateral water commission data.

On Thursday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum asserted her administration's treaty compliance during drought conditions, "to the extent of water availability". She announced via platform X that her government had forwarded a "comprehensive proposal" to the US State Department, expressing confidence in reaching an agreement.

"Yesterday, a comprehensive proposal was sent to the Undersecretary of the U.S. Department of State to address the water supply to Texas under the 1944 treaty, which includes very short-term actions. This has been a three-year drought, and to the extent water is available, Mexico has been complying. The International Boundary and Water Commission has continued its work to identify mutually beneficial solutions," she said.

Further offering details of the officials involved she added, "I have instructed the Secretaries of Agriculture and Rural Development and Foreign Affairs, as well as the Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources, to immediately contact the US Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of State. I am confident that, as on other issues, an agreement will be reached."

Mexico attributes delayed deliveries to prolonged drought conditions affecting the Rio Grande basin. Meanwhile, US agricultural communities and politicians criticised Mexico's pattern of delayed deliveries at cycle endings and current shortfall.

In November, both nations signed an agreement to prevent water scarcity in southern US states through improved Mexican water delivery commitments.

Previous Mexican efforts to fulfil treaty obligations have sparked civil unrest. In 2020, Chihuahua farmers occupied a dam, preventing reservoir water transfer to the United States, resulting in confrontations with National Guard forces and one fatality.
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