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Greenhouse gas levels surge and hit a new record in 2023, WMO warns of long-term global warming threat

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NEW DELHI: The year 2023 was not only the warmest on record but also witnessed another record-high surge in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, committing the planet to rising temperatures for many years to come, according to an annual bulletin of the World Meteorological Organisation released on Monday.

It also cautioned that carbon dioxide (CO2) is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than at any time during human existence, having risen 11.4% in just 20 years. WMO said the last time the Earth experienced a comparable CO2 concentration of was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3 degree Celsius warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now.

“Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers. We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degree Celsius and aiming for 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo.

Noting that these are more than just statistics, she said, “Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.”

The WMO bulletin, released ahead of the upcoming UN climate conference (COP29), shows that the globally-averaged surface concentration of CO2 reached 420 parts per million (ppm), methane 1,934 parts per billion, and nitrous oxide 336.9 parts per billion (ppb) in 2023. “These values are 151%, 265% and 125% of pre-industrial (before 1,750) levels,” it said, noting that these are calculated on the basis of the long-term observations within the Global Atmosphere Watch network of monitoring stations.

According to the bulletin that reports on GHG concentrations rather than on emission levels, the CO2 level has increased 11.4 % (42.9 ppm) above the level of 377.1 ppm recorded in 2004. CO2 is the single most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, accounting for approximately 64% of the warming effect on the climate.

The long-term CO2 increase is mainly due to fossil fuel combustion but there are year-to-year variations due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The surge in 2023 was also contributed by El Nino — a climate pattern associated with unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean — as during such years drier vegetation and forest fires reduce the efficiency of land carbon sink.

Methane, a powerful greenhouse gas which remains in the atmosphere for about a decade, on the other hand, accounts for about 16% of the warming effect of long-lived GHG. The third one, nitrous oxide, is both a powerful GHG and ozone depleting chemical, accounting for about 6% of the radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases with the remaining 14% being contributed by other polluting gases.

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