Indus Waters Treaty Explained: How does the suspension affect Pakistan?

Soon after the deadly J&K’s terror attack on April 22, which snatched away , including two foreign nationals, India accused its neighbour Pakistan of “sponsoring terrorism.” In a strong response, India announced a series of diplomatic measures, including the closure of the Attari-Wahag border checkpost, visa cancellations, and the expulsion of several Pakistani personnel from India.

However, the most significant move was the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty – an action that could severely impact Pakistan economically at a time when the Muslim-majority nation is already grappling with a deepening crisis.

“The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism,” Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said on April 23.

Pakistan has rejected India’s suspension of the treaty and said any measures to stop the flow of water “belonging to Pakistan” under the pact will be seen as an “act of war”. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an act of war,” according to an official statement by Pakistan.

On Thursday, April 25, India’s Secretary of Water Resources, Debashree Mukherjee, in a letter addressed to her Pakistani counterpart, Syed Ali Murtaza, stated, “The obligation to honour a treaty in good faith is fundamental to a treaty. However, what we have seen instead is sustained cross-border terrorism by Pakistan targeting the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.”

“The resulting security uncertainties have directly impeded India’s full utilisation of its rights under the treaty. The Government of India has hereby decided that the Indus Waters Treaty 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect,” the letter added.

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What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

At the time of Independence, the boundary demarcation between the two newly formed nations — India and Pakistan — cut through the Indus Basin, leaving India as the upper riparian and Pakistan as the lower riparian state.

Two key irrigation works — one at Madhopur on the Ravi and another at Ferozepur on the Sutlej — on which Punjab on Pakistan’s side was entirely dependent — ended up within the Indian territory.

This led to a dispute between the two countries over the utilisation of irrigation water from the existing infrastructure. Following negotiations facilitated by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (now part of the World Bank Group), the Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 on September 19, 1960, between India and Pakistan heads – Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and President Ayub Ali Khan – after nearly nine years of negotiation.

According to the provisions of the treaty, 30 percent of the Indus basin belongs to India and the remaining to Pakistan. In other words, the Indus basin is divided between the two countries, with the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab – with Pakistan and the eastern rivers – Sutlej, Ravi and Beas – with India.

While the treaty divides the river water control between the two nations, it still allows each side limited access to the other’s designated waters for specific purposes like agriculture or hydropower, under strict rules.

How does it affect Pakistan?

According to Pakistan’s 2024 economic survey, agriculture contributes 23 percent to the country’s GDP, while employment is 7.4 percent. This means a majority of Pakistan’s population is dependent on agriculture, directly and indirectly.

Pakistan relies heavily on agriculture and power consumption from the rivers – Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. It does not have an alternate source of water.

The Muslim-majority nation is already reeling under inflation and low economic growth. Putting the treaty on hold would worsen the crisis.

However, the suspension will not immediately affect Pakistan. This is because India is the upper riparian (located upstream) while Pakistan is the lower riparian. Though India controls the flow of the rivers, it cannot divert or store water due to the lack of machinery. Additionally, the annual glacier melt between May and September leads to a surge in downstream water flow, which would continue for now.

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Can India cancel the treaty?

Well, in simple words – No. The Indus Waters Treaty does not have an exit clause, meaning neither India nor Pakistan can legally abrogate it unilaterally. The treaty can only be modified by mutual agreement.

Pakistani lawyer, Ahmer Bilal Soofi, told Al Jazeera that by ‘suspending’ the treaty, India has violated international laws relating to upper and lower riparian, where upper riparian cannot arbitrarily stop water flow to lower riparian.

However, he mentions that Pakistan cannot approach the International Court of Justice (ICJ) because of the Indian reservation that bars the filing of a case by Pakistan against India.

“If India ends the treaty, Pakistan will have no peaceful legal route to make India comply,” Soofi warned.

How will the Indus Waters Treaty proceed?

The suspension comes at an interesting junction when India, over the last three years, has been pressing Pakistan seeking modification of the Indus Waters Treaty.

According to New Delhi-based political analyst Anuttama Banerji, the treaty can continue with “revision, review or modification.”

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Two notices, one in January 2023 and September 2024, have been sent so far to the Muslim majority country. In light of the current situation, India appears to have gained influence over its long-standing push for treaty reform.

Furthermore, India would have an upper hand in gaining water resources in the western rivers (Jhelum, Chenab and Indus) by building new dams, which would increase its ability to manage the water flow and storage, thus potentially altering the balance of power in the region.

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