Putin's war means every ruble counts - and that's bad news for oligarchs

The high profile arrest of Russian billionaire Konstantin Strukov is the latest and most startling sign of how the war in Ukraine is overturning the Kremlin's long-standing pact with its wealthiest allies. While Vladimir Putin has no interest in Stalin-like purges, experts say, his strained war economy is facing a harsh reality: oligarchs need to steal less.

Strukov, a decorated former patron of the Putin regime, was detained on the tarmac in Chelyabinsk just before his Bombardier aircraft could take off for Turkey. The Federal Air Transport Agency and FSB reportedly grounded the flight and seized his passport, citing a court-imposed travel ban.

His decision to flee was was his undoing.

"He is unlikely to leave the labour camp where he will be sent, because he broke one of Putin's cardinal rules," said Russian expert Prof Mark Galeotti.

"Putin who sees a line between enemies and traitors. Enemies you fight, traitors you just eliminate. "

Strukov's gold mining empire, Uzhuralzoloto, is now under state investigation and may soon be nationalised.

His fall is being interpreted by some as part of a much broader recalibration of Kremlin power as the war drags on and the economic cost mounts.

"When Putin first came to power, the social contract was: you stay out of politics, I stay out of your way," said Prof Galeotti.

"But since the start of the war, it's become more demanding. You have to be a patriot. And also, you have to steal a little bit less."

Galeotti, a long-time observer of Russian organised crime and state security, believes Strukov's case signals a redefinition of what the Kremlin considers tolerable.

"It's not about assets going to Putin for the war effort," he said.

"It is rather that the kind of bounds of acceptable corruption are being redefined. What was once regarded as acceptable levels of embezzlement are no longer acceptable, because that takes away money. 'I won't tolerate not having my full cut anymore'. That's what it's about."

The arrest has reverberated through Russia's business elite, not least because of Strukov's reputation as a Putin loyalist who was once considered untouchable.

Reports from the Telegram channel EZH suggest a second case is being prepared against him personally, for alleged abuse of corporate power.

War with Ukraine has made such moves more frequent - and more necessary for Putin.

But it would be a mistake to ascribe the raft of so-called defenestrations - the falling of high profile olirach out of high windows - as completely Putin's doing

"If Putin wants someone dealt with, they get arrested. They're wearing a stripy uniform in a labour camp and their assets have been repossessed and reallocated," he said.

"He doesn't need to have people thrown out of windows. That's wasteful and inconvenient when you've got the whole apparatus of the state at your disposal."

Strukov's case comes amid a series of arrests, convictions and unexplained deaths among senior defence and transport officials - many of them tied to allegations of wartime graft.

On Tuesday, former Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov was sentenced to 13 years in a penal colony for corruption, while a former logistics contractor received 12.5 years.

Two other Shoigu-era deputies are under investigation.

The Kremlin insists these prosecutions reflect a long-overdue crackdown on military waste and embezzlement.

But some observers believe they point to internal pressures as Putin struggles to maintain elite cohesion in wartime.

"It's a bit of a hearkening back to the wild days of the 1990s," said Galeotti.

"But they hadn't moved with the times. What five years ago was an acceptable level of embezzlement was no longer now, but they had not adapted quickly enough -and therefore they got caught."

One former transport minister, Roman Starovoit, was found dead from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound hours after being dismissed by Putin.

He had reportedly been about to face charges linked to embezzled funds allocated for border fortifications in Kursk - a region temporarily seized by Ukrainian troops last year.

Strukov, Galeotti suggested, may have been selected as a "high-profile example of what happens if you don't toe the new line."

For now, there is little sign of organised rebellion among Russia's elite.

"These are people who are not being pushed into penury," Galeotti said.

"It's merely from kind of profane to obscene levels of embezzlement. Do you keep your head down -or do you risk losing everything?"

Yet the system is clearly under strain.

"Strukov is just one. There's a hell of a lot of Strukovs around in Russia," Galeotti added.

"But as a warning sign, a canary in the mine, of the growing pressures on the Putin system, it matters. "The risk is that Putin will push too far and force even his own kind of greedy and timorous elite into feeling they have no option but to move their money out - or challenge him."