Donald Trump has just handed Iranians a rare chance - they must now make a key choice

Donald Trump's declaration of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel may prove more than a mere pause. For the Iranian people, it is a chance to reflect on their leaders' failures and their country's direction. The truce follows nearly two weeks of Israeli and US strikes that crippled Iran's nuclear sites, military assets and supply lines.

Those strikes revealed not just military weakness but growing political isolation and dysfunction. This is no longer the regime that withstood the Green Revolution in 2009 or the Amini protests of 2023. Iran's response - pre-warned missiles fired at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar - was a damp squib, carefully calibrated to avoid an escalation it cannot afford. Its nuclear programme has been set back, but more importantly, its ability to weaponise it is gone.

Its regional ambitions were dealt a hammer blow as Israel neutralised key proxies in Gaza and Lebanon.

A critical supply corridor through Syria is gone, and with it £80billion of Iranian investment. Even allies like Russia offered little support.

No wonder Trump insisted he doesn't want "the chaos of regime change". But that doesn't mean change isn't coming.

Inside Iran, some 80% of the population wants rid of an Islamic regime that usurped its way into power in 1979 by betraying left-wing protestors simply hoping to overthrow a monarchy, according to a survey from 2023 by the Netherlands-based Gamaan institute conducted on 158,000 Iranians.

While Netanyahu spoke of regime change, the strikes left little room for protest. Ordinary Iranians were focused on staying alive, many fleeing Tehran for the countryside.

That may now change.

The regime's weakness has been laid bare. It couldn't protect its own people while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his entourage cowered in a bunker in Lavizan, leaving civilians to fend for themselves.

Some in exile are positioning for a transition.

Reza Pahlavi, exiled son of the former Shah, called this a "Berlin Wall moment" and offered to lead a transitional government. Nostalgia for the Pahlavi era runs deep.

Tehran's Jomeh bazaar brims with Shah-era memorabilia - vintage coins, busts, stamps and Shir o Khorshid emblems - now sold openly. Shopkeepers display them with growing confidence, reflecting a shift in public sentiment.

It speaks to a longing for the stability, pride and progress many associate with the Shah's rule.

I spent my childhood in Pahlavi, Tehran. My father, a pipeline engineer for Italian energy giant ENI, worked on the Shah's programme to bring heating gas to homes.

I remember the optimism and energy - and later, the shock when it was learned the Shah had fled.

For many, that era now marks an emotional benchmark: when the currency held its value, education and health reforms were making a real impact and the future felt bright.

But with monarchists divided and no real presence on the ground, it's unclear how Reza Pahlavi can gain real traction.

Another group positioning itself is the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and its armed wing, the MEK.

Unlike the Pahlavis, the NCRI has underground networks inside Iran and has published a 10-point plan for a secular, democratic, non-nuclear state. It also played a role in exposing secret nuclear sites.

But its alliance with Saddam Hussein and reputation for cult-like control continue to alienate many Iranians.

Trump's reluctance to back regime change reflects a recognition that lasting reform must come from within.

With Khamenei now 86, change is coming.

Reformist voices like Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former minister turned political prisoner, advocate a peaceful transition anchored in a new constituent assembly.

A homegrown democratic movement that redefines, rather than topples, the regime's relationship may be the way change happens.

And it is still possible - if Iranians choose to seize the moment.