Allan Lichtman, the 'Election Nostradamus,' feels the pressure but won't waver on Kamala Harris win prediction

American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman, known for his perfect election predictions, has maintained his forecast that Kamala Harris will win the upcoming election. Lichtman, who originally made this prediction on September 5, stated that nothing has changed to alter his forecast.

During a livestream on Tuesday, Lichtman expressed his concern for the country's future rather than the election polls. "Of course I'm anxious. Not because of the polls, but primarily because I’m worried about the future of this country,” Lichtman said.

"I've been doing this for 42 years and every four years I have butterflies in my stomach," he said. "This year, I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach."

Using his " Keys to the White House" analysis, Lichtman evaluates 13 specific categories. According to his analysis, Harris holds an advantage in eight out of the 13 categories, compared to President Donald Trump’s three. He acknowledged the chance of being wrong but described these as unlikely. "But it’s always possible that something so cataclysmic and so unprecedented could change the pattern of history."

For over 42 years, Lichtman has predicted election outcomes with high accuracy. He emphasized that his system, based on objective and quantitative indicators, has been consistently reliable. "My predictions have stood the test of time, my indicators have always been right," he said.

Lichtman, a registered Democrat, recently canceled his Washington Post subscription after the newspaper decided not to endorse a candidate. He noted that this year's election anxiety was unprecedented, drawing comparison to past elections. "There is more election anxiety this year than I have ever seen and I go back to Kennedy-Nixon," he remarked.

Lichtman also revealed that he has faced unprecedented hostility for predicting Harris' win. “I have never experienced anything close to the hate that has been reaped upon me this time,” he shared with NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo. “I’ve been getting feedback that is vulgar, violent, threatening, and even beyond that, the safety and security of my family has been compromised.”

Who is Allan Lichtman?
Allan Lichtman is a renowned political historian and election forecaster, best known for his "Keys to the White House" prediction model. Born in 1947, Lichtman is currently a "Distinguished Professor" at American University in Washington, D.C., where he has taught for many years. He earned a Ph.D. in modern American history and quantitative methods from Harvard University.

Lichtman’s prediction system, developed with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, assesses thirteen "keys" to determine the outcome of U.S. presidential elections. Each key is a true-or-false statement relating to the incumbent party's strength and performance. If six or more statements are false, the challenging party is likely to win; if five or fewer are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win. This model has correctly forecasted the popular vote outcome in every presidential election since 1984, except for the contentious 2000 election where George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.

What are the 13 Keys to the White House

• Incumbent Party Mandate: After the midterms, the incumbent party has more seats in the U.S. House than after the previous midterm (False).
• No Serious Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination (True).
• Incumbent Running: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president (False).
• No Third-Party Challenge: There is no significant third-party challenger (True).
• Strong Short-Term Economy: The short-term economy is strong (True).
• Strong Long-Term Economy: Long-term economic growth has been as good as in the past two terms (True).
• Major Policy Change: The incumbent party has made major changes in national policy (True).
• Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest (True).
• No Scandals: The administration is untainted by scandal (True).
• No Major Foreign/Military Failure: The administration suffers no major foreign or military failure (Leans False).
• Major Foreign/Military Success: The administration achieves a major foreign or military success (Leans True).
• Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero (False).
• Challenger Charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero (True).

According to Lichtman, if at least eight of these keys favor the incumbent party, they are more likely to retain the White House. For the 2024 election cycle, Lichtman’s analysis indicates at least eight keys favoring the Democratic Party, making Vice President Kamala Harris, if she runs, the projected winner under this model.